Over the past decade, significant climate change trends have emerged in southern Russia, affecting water resources and altering river hydrology. Increasingly frequent natural disasters are hampering stable agricultural harvests and reducing their quality. Since the Krasnodar Reservoir's commissioning, great hopes have been placed on optimizing its water resources throughout the year, taking into account all water users and consumers. However, the Krasnodar Reservoir is currently unable to store its designed volumes of water due to shallowing caused by river sediments. This situation has a significant impact on agriculture and poses risks to the environment and the population. In the past year alone, inflows into the reservoir have decreased by almost 30%, and the water level for September 2025 is 6.8 meters below the normal flood level, significantly reducing the reservoir's capacity and posing a threat to the agricultural sector, particularly the rice industry. Therefore, the aim of our research was to study the inflow of the Krasnodar Reservoir to inform timely management decisions in the rice-growing industry of Krasnodar Krai. The Krasnodar Reservoir was the object of our study. The objective of the study was to determine the relationship between water inflow into the reservoir and precipitation during the cold season of the year to forecast its filling capacity. Based on an analysis of the entire set of average monthly inflow data into the Krasnodar Reservoir, annual precipitation totals for the Krasnodar Krai during warm and cold periods over the entire history of instrumental observations, as well as snow measurement data in the Western Caucasus Mountains conducted during the period of maximum snow accumulation, a fundamental relationship between water inflow into the reservoir and precipitation during the cold season of the year was established. Further research into this relationship will allow us to formulate a series of recommendations for agricultural workers, enabling them to adapt crop cultivation technologies to new climatic conditions and achieve stable yields in the face of persistent water shortages.
reservoir inflow, precipitation, warm and cold periods, snow reserves, low- and high-water years, Krasnodar Krai
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